CFB Week 9

**TOP PICKS**

AIR FORCE -5 (WIN)
OKLAHOMA ST. +12 (WIN)
PITTSBURGH -9.5 (LOSS)

**OTHER PICKS**

BOISE ST. -7 (WIN)
MINNESOTA +1 (WIN)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -4 (LOSS)
NORTHWESTERN -8 (LOSS)
BAYLOR +12.5 (WIN)
RICE +2 (WIN)
MICHIGAN STATE -3.5 (WIN)
GEORGIA TECH -12 (LOSS)
GEORGIA +2 (WIN)
MISSISSIPPI -4.5 (LOSS)
PENN STATE -2.5 (WIN)

Week 8 Results

Wow, not a very good week. Still trying to get the computer tweaked on the spreads doing well straight up. I think some of the upsets have put it a little out of whack. The computer should be doing better. This is where it stands to date:

Total Correct (SU): 473
Correct%: 80.17
Average Error: 0.72
Average Abs Error: 11.705

The Average Error is not bad, that is what is used to hit the spreads. So based on that It should be hitting a lot more spread games. I believe some of the upsets and under performance of certain teams is the reason it is not doing as well. I am not going to make any adjustments this week and we will see how it goes.

For Kicks here is the computer's Top 25:

1. Oklahoma St.
2. Texas
3. Penn St.
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Alabama
7. Southern California
8. Texas Tech
9. Georgia
10. Utah
11. Ohio St.
12. Ball St.
13. Boise St.
14. Missouri
15. Georgia Tech
16. TCU
17. California
18. LSU
19. Florida St.
20. Arizona
21. Boston College
22. Pittsburgh
23. Kansas
24. Tulsa
25. Cincinnati


It is also calling for 5 Teams to go undefeated! Which will make the "scrap the BCS and have a play-off" argument popular once again if this holds true.

Here are the 5 teams predicted to go undefeated by the Computer:

Texas
Penn State
Alabama
Utah
Ball State
Boise State


BCS Busters?

It will be very interesting to see how the BCS handles Bowl bids IF Utah, Boise and Ball St. all finish undefeated. I personally don't think all three will be able to run the table.

I think out of the three Utah will most likely drop a game. Even though they are playing well they still have TCU, which I think will be the deciding Key game for them. The Computer has them favored right now by 1.9 pts, which will change (adjusts itself each week based on prior week performance). If they can win that one, then they should go 12-0.

For Ball State the Comp. believes the Key game is against Northern Illinois, which Ball is favored to win by 7, the next closest game they should have is against Central Michigan in which Ball is favored by 9.8 pts.

Boise should be able to cruise the rest of the way. the closest games they have left are against New Mexico St. and Nevada. Boise is favored to win each game by close to 10 pts.

CFB Week 8

Again this week I have included a lot more of the computer picks. If the computer calls for a straight up upset I have marked it by a (U).

**TOP PICKS**

WAKE FOREST -2.5 (LOSS)
NORTH CAROLINA -4.5 (LOSS)
TROY -10 (PUSH)
OREGON STATE -15.5 (WIN)
AIR FORCE -4 (LOSS)

**OTHER PICKS**

BOISE STATE -24 (LOSS)
CONNECTICUT -1 (LOSS)
GEORGIA TECH -2.5 (WIN)
MEMPHIS +8 (U) (LOSS)
SYRACUSE +24 (LOSS)
IOWA -4 (WIN)
NORTHWESTERN -4 (WIN)
BOWLING GREEN -9 (LOSS)
WESTERN MICHIGAN -2 (LOSS)
TEXAS A&M +21 (WIN)
NEBRASKA -8 (WIN)
VANDERBILT +14.5 (WIN)
AKRON -4 (WIN)
WESTERN KY +2.5 (U) (LOSS)
COLORADO STATE +21.5 (LOSS)
SOUTHERN MISS +2 (U) (LOSS)
BAYLOR +17 (LOSS)
DUKE +3 (LOSS)
KANSAS +19.5 (WIN)
MISSISSIPPI +12 (WIN)
WASHINGTON STATE +42 (LOSS)
PITTSBURGH -2.5 (WIN)
MICHIGAN STATE +3.5 (LOSS)
BUFFALO -11.5 (LOSS)
MIDDLE TENN ST +14 (LOSS)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -9.5 (WIN)
UTAH STATE +22 (LOSS)
UAB +3 (WIN)
STANFORD -2.5 (LOSS)
PENN STATE -24.5 (WIN)
SAN DIEGO STATE +14.5 (LOSS)
TENNESSEE -7.5 (WIN)
KENTUCKY -7.5 (LOSS)
IDAHO +20 (LOSS)
KANSAS STATE +3 (U) (WIN)
NORTH TEXAS +18 (WIN)
ARKANSAS STATE +3 (U) (LOSS)
BOSTON COLLEGE -3 (WIN)
MISSOURI +4.5 (LOSS)
LSU -2.5 (WIN)
UTEP +18 (LOSS)
NEW MEXICO STATE +2 (LOSS)
SMU +13.5 (WIN)
INDIANA +15.5 (LOSS)
CALIFORNIA -2.5 (LOSS)

Friday 10/17 game

I decided to go ahead and put up the computer's pick for the Hawaii/Boise St. game.

PLAY: Boise State (61%) by -26

TCU and FSU Computer Performance

Well I didn't post this pick but I should have. The computer is starting to do fairly well now. for Thursday night it had picked both FSU and TCU as straight up winners.

It had given FSU a 71% chance of winning straight up by a spread of -21 which was off a bit. The final difference was -9. For the TCU/BYU game it gave TCU a 66% chance of winning straight up by a spread of -22 which was pretty close. TCU won the game by 25.

I will post the Computer picks for Saturday again this week.

CFB Week 7

This week you will see a lot more teams in the other picks. I have decided to post more of the computers picks as "Other Picks."


**TOP PICKS**

CINCINNATI -7.5 (LOSS)
KENTUCKY +1 (LOSS)
EAST CAROLINA -6 (LOSS)
IOWA -6 (WIN)
EASTERN MICHIGAN -1 (LOSS)
ARIZONA -6 (LOSS)
BALL STATE -15.5 (WIN)
ARKANSAS STATE -13 (LOSS)
AIR FORCE -10 (WIN)

**OTHER PICKS**

WAKE FOREST -1.5 (WIN)
UAB +18 (LOSS)
LOUISVILLE -6.5 (WIN)
SYRACUSE +24 (WIN)
MINNESOTA +12.5 (WIN)
TOLEDO +16 (WIN)
TEXAS +6.5 (WIN)
COLORADO +14 (LOSS)
WYOMING +23 (LOSS)
KANSAS STATE -3 (WIN)
VANDERBILT -2.5 (LOSS)
OHIO -1 (WIN)
NEBRASKA +21 (WIN)
TCU -15 (LOSS)
TENNESSEE +11.5 (LOSS)
MICHIGAN STATE -1.5 (WIN)
NOTRE DAME +8 (WIN)
OHIO STATE -19 (LOSS)
ARIZONA STATE +28 (PUSH)
BUFFALO -1.5 (LOSS)
CENTRAL FLORIDA +17 (WIN)
TEMPLE +7.5 (LOSS)
NEW MEXICO STATE +19 (WIN)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -11 (LOSS)
ARKANSAS +18.5 (WIN)
BOWLING GREEN -1 (WIN)
NEW MEXICO +23 (WIN)
WASHINGTON STATE +30 (LOSS)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE +2 (LOSS)
NORTH TEXAS +21.5 (LOSS)
BAYLOR -4.5 (WIN)
UTAH STATE +14 (LOSS)
SOUTHERN MISS +10.5 (LOSS)
OKLAHOMA STATE +14 (WIN)
PENN STATE -5.5 (WIN)
FLORIDA -6 (WIN)
SMU +25 (WIN)
UTEP -4.5 (LOSS)
IDAHO +34 (WIN)
OREGON -17.5 (LOSS)
HAWAII -7.5 (WIN)

NFL Week 5 Results

*** Top NFL Picks ***

NY Giants (-7.5) (WON)
Chicago (-3.5) (WON)
New England (-3) (WON)
Cincinnati (+16.5) (WON)
New Orleans (-3.5) (LOSS)

**Top Underdog Play**

Buffalo (+1) (LOSS)